{"id":125,"date":"2025-05-06T19:28:55","date_gmt":"2025-05-06T19:28:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/vigilant-wu.46-242-130-154.plesk.page\/?page_id=125"},"modified":"2025-05-12T08:48:44","modified_gmt":"2025-05-12T08:48:44","slug":"2-overcoming-short-termism-and-bias-in-risk-management","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/ferma.eu\/next-report-2025\/2-overcoming-short-termism-and-bias-in-risk-management\/","title":{"rendered":"2. Overcoming short-termism and bias in Risk Management"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-page\" data-elementor-id=\"125\" class=\"elementor elementor-125\" data-elementor-post-type=\"page\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5a52ed5 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"5a52ed5\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e7a2755 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"e7a2755\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-684ef1a e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"684ef1a\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-928f294 e-con-full e-grid e-con e-child\" data-id=\"928f294\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8e44f0e e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"8e44f0e\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-94a0d71 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"94a0d71\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">2<\/p>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3b06ce4 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"3b06ce4\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h1 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Overcoming short-termism and bias in risk management<\/h1>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-dce390e e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-child\" data-id=\"dce390e\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-0754fdc elementor-align-right elementor-widget elementor-widget-button\" data-id=\"0754fdc\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"button.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-button-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-button elementor-button-link elementor-size-sm\" href=\"https:\/\/ferma.eu\/next-report-2025\/1\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-content-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 25 24\" transform=\"rotate(0 0 0)\"><path fill-rule=\"evenodd\" clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M5.91406 4.5C5.91406 4.08579 6.24985 3.75 6.66406 3.75C7.07828 3.75 7.41406 4.08579 7.41406 4.5V9.83812L15.567 4.27346C17.0605 3.2541 19.0854 4.32365 19.0854 6.13185L19.0854 17.868C19.0854 19.6762 17.0605 20.7457 15.567 19.7264L7.41406 14.1617V19.4999C7.41406 19.9142 7.07828 20.25 6.66406 20.25C6.24985 20.25 5.91406 19.9142 5.91406 19.4999V4.5ZM7.81514 12.6194C7.37888 12.3216 7.37888 11.6782 7.81514 11.3805L16.4126 5.51238C16.9104 5.1726 17.5854 5.52912 17.5854 6.13185L17.5854 17.868C17.5854 18.4707 16.9104 18.8272 16.4126 18.4875L7.81514 12.6194Z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-aa2aaee elementor-align-right elementor-widget elementor-widget-button\" data-id=\"aa2aaee\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"button.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-button-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-button elementor-button-link elementor-size-sm\" href=\"https:\/\/ferma.eu\/next-report-2025\/3\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-content-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 25 24\" transform=\"rotate(0 0 0)\"><path fill-rule=\"evenodd\" clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M19.0854 4.5C19.0854 4.08579 18.7496 3.75 18.3354 3.75C17.9212 3.75 17.5854 4.08579 17.5854 4.5V9.83812L9.43248 4.27346C7.939 3.2541 5.91406 4.32365 5.91406 6.13185V17.868C5.91406 19.6762 7.939 20.7457 9.43248 19.7264L17.5854 14.1617V19.4999C17.5854 19.9142 17.9212 20.25 18.3354 20.25C18.7496 20.25 19.0854 19.9142 19.0854 19.4999V4.5ZM17.1843 12.6194C17.6206 12.3216 17.6206 11.6782 17.1843 11.3805L8.58687 5.51238C8.08904 5.1726 7.41406 5.52912 7.41406 6.13185L7.41406 17.868C7.41406 18.4707 8.08904 18.8272 8.58687 18.4875L17.1843 12.6194Z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3d36832 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"3d36832\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9a06ce1 elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider\" data-id=\"9a06ce1\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"divider.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-divider\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-divider-separator\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e603888 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"e603888\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e71b9f3 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"e71b9f3\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>To build more resilient organisations and societies, Risk Managers must adopt a long-term perspective and actively counter cognitive biases. This can be done by:<\/p><ul><li><span class=\"light-blue\">Embedding strategic foresight<\/span><br \/>Organisations should consider integrating foresight practices such as scenario planning, trend analysis and horizon scanning into their decision-making processes to anticipate and prepare for future risks. This should be done in a governance framework that separates long-term risk processes from short-term operational risk management.<\/li><li><span class=\"light-blue\">Cultivating a culture of long-term thinking<\/span><br \/>It is of great benefit if organisational leadership champions a forward-looking mindset, emphasising the value of proactive risk management over reactive crisis response.<\/li><li><span class=\"light-blue\">Redefining metrics<\/span><br \/>Moving beyond short-term financial metrics to include long-term resilience and adaptability as key performance indicators.<\/li><li><span class=\"light-blue\">Leveraging technology<\/span><br \/>AI-driven analytics and predictive modelling can enhance risk detection and provide objective insights that mitigate human biases.<\/li><li><span class=\"light-blue\">Undertaking regular critical reviews<\/span><br \/>with peers of the parameters used to establish strategic targets, to avoid biases<\/li><li><span class=\"light-blue\">Employing holistic thinking<\/span><br \/>and developing greater awareness of how risks can be intertwined, interconnected and interdependent.<\/li><\/ul><p>The future is not an abstract concept but a tool that can and should be used to make informed decisions today. Most Risk Managers recognise the limitations of short-termism and the narrow operational focus on known risks but lack the tools or support to devote time and organisational attention to the emerging risk landscape. This paper proposes that by adopting strategic foresight methodologies and fostering a culture of long-term thinking, organisations can enhance their resilience and better navigate an increasingly uncertain world.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-cdf63de e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"cdf63de\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-30facc3 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"30facc3\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-0858dae e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"0858dae\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-144678c e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"144678c\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-a9b8402 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"a9b8402\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\"><span class=\"light-blue\">2.1<\/span> Foresight in risk management\u2028<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1599311 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"1599311\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>In recent years, foresight has emerged from the field of strategic planning as a distinct and formal discipline. It is now increasingly recognised as a core competency requirement in many organisations. Some have even established new roles, such as Chief Foresight Officer. This underscores the relevance of the discipline and the importance that many large organisations attach to it.<\/p><p>Strategic foresight considers medium-to-long-term time horizons; the aim is not to predict the future. Rather, at a time when forecasts, projections and linear decision-making methods are not enough, strategic foresight aims to achieve a view of how the future might appear in the form of new assumptions, behaviours and realities.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-566558a e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"566558a\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d298960 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"d298960\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-b42503d elementor-view-default elementor-widget elementor-widget-icon\" data-id=\"b42503d\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"icon.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div 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C-211.87178223 103.69634766 -211.36856445 103.14269531 -210.85009766 102.57226562 C-199.35989063 89.93815984 -199.35989063 89.93815984 -193.453125 85.01171875 C-191.28119064 83.17047365 -189.19347453 81.250088 -187.10839844 79.31152344 C-181.06351855 73.69432931 -174.81957115 68.40736183 -168.375 63.25 C-167.24416043 62.32759625 -166.11398485 61.40437804 -164.984375 60.48046875 C-129.16404326 31.31289935 -48.15360213 -32.33801538 0 0 Z\" transform=\"translate(399.375,146.75)\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-bc1bce7 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"bc1bce7\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><em>The starting point for practising foresight, therefore, should always be to challenge the tendency to favour a \u2018business as usual\u2019 future and instead to explore viable alternatives. This approach can certainly enable more effective preparedness and future-proofing, but it requires a future-thinking mindset.<\/em><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-c134e3f e-transform e-transform elementor-view-default elementor-widget elementor-widget-icon\" data-id=\"c134e3f\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_transform_flipX_effect&quot;:&quot;transform&quot;,&quot;_transform_flipY_effect&quot;:&quot;transform&quot;}\" data-widget_type=\"icon.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-icon-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-icon\">\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewBox=\"100 0 750 700\" stroke=\"currentColor\" fill=\"none\" stroke-width=\"2\"><path d=\"M0 0 C5.05788827 4.33533281 9.86013647 10.26550018 11 17 C11.97079162 30.3414505 10.72646933 38.73367561 1.75 49.125 C-10.95586375 62.49740087 -26.03847905 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0 0 Z\" transform=\"translate(399.375,146.75)\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-341b5c5 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"341b5c5\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-af58b02 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"af58b02\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7b3746f elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"7b3746f\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>In an increasingly dynamic environment, as foresight becomes more mature as a discipline we are seeing foresight frameworks, methodologies and tools evolve as innovative approaches develop. Traditional risk management has always involved elements of hindsight, insight and, to a degree, foresight to help analyse the probability and impact of identified risks. However, many of today\u2019s major emerging risks could potentially have been avoided, prevented or at least minimised if a foresight approach had been adopted. This not only applies to the four emerging risk trends outlined in this report, but \u2013 crucially \u2013 will also apply to those risks appearing on the horizon. Future-focused Risk Managers would benefit from adopting a foresight approach to their toolkit and scope to be better equipped to assess how risk assumptions, parameters and dimensions should be viewed going forward.<\/p><p>Risk foresight involves adopting a scientific and systematic approach to applying foresight techniques in risk management. And this is particularly true in the case of identifying and managing emerging risks. A foresight focus can help Risk Managers to be better prepared to deal with surprises posed by the Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity (VUCA) environment of the 21st century.<\/p><p>This FERMA NEXT report provides examples of foresight tools that are available for forward-looking risk professionals when considering and addressing emerging risks.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-202b65e elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"202b65e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"458\" src=\"https:\/\/ferma.eu\/next-report-2025\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/2-photo.jpg\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-251\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ferma.eu\/next-report-2025\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/2-photo.jpg 850w, https:\/\/ferma.eu\/next-report-2025\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/2-photo-300x172.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ferma.eu\/next-report-2025\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/2-photo-768x440.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-c1380e3 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"c1380e3\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\"><span class=\"light-blue\">2.2<\/span> Strategic risk management tools to address emerging risks<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6ed6935 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"6ed6935\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Risk Managers employ various methodologies to address the emerging risks facing their organisations.<\/p><p>These tools, often used in combination with one another, can be used to help Risk Managers spot emerging trends, assess their potential impact and put in place strategies to manage, mitigate and transfer some of their effects.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6e95f87 e-con-full e-grid e-con e-child\" data-id=\"6e95f87\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6ebe619 elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"6ebe619\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2d1aa8c e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"2d1aa8c\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-60068e7 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"60068e7\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Purpose<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8d4f332 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"8d4f332\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-17f00fa elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"17f00fa\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>How it works<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d1a508b e-con-full e-grid grid-table e-con e-child\" data-id=\"d1a508b\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-91d14ce e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"91d14ce\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-c7d02b8 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"c7d02b8\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Scenario<br>\nplanning<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3249490 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"3249490\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-37dab3e elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"37dab3e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Helps organisations explore multiple plausible future scenarios and prepare for uncertainty.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4ec8da0 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"4ec8da0\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-fbc8dc1 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"fbc8dc1\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Develops narratives based on key uncertainties and assesses their potential impact on strategy.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-dddf14b e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"dddf14b\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7605031 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"7605031\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Horizon<br>\nscanning<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ddaac45 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"ddaac45\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-0a1eb9a elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"0a1eb9a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Systematically tracks early signals of change across industries, technologies, regulations, and societal trends.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f890384 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"f890384\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-290f874 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"290f874\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Uses sources like research papers, patents, expert opinions and trend databases to detect weak signals.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4616060 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"4616060\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-a6838a8 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"a6838a8\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Bowtie<br>\nanalysis<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-04fa294 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"04fa294\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6325383 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"6325383\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tProvides a <span class=\"light-blue\">visual representation<\/span> of risk causes, consequences, and controls, allowing organisations to identify leading indicators of emerging risks, explore and perhaps manage vulnerabilities by mitigation measures.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-0eef231 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"0eef231\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f737525 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"f737525\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tDivides risk analysis into <span class=\"light-blue\">causal factors<\/span> (on the left) leading to an event (in the centre) and <span class=\"light-blue\">consequences<\/span> (on the right), with preventive and recovery measures mapped accordingly.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-25e82fc e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"25e82fc\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-480bbe7 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"480bbe7\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Leading<br>\nindicators for<br>\nrisk detection<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f4a0857 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"f4a0857\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8fbdc0f elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"8fbdc0f\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Identifies measurable and trackable (not necessarily quantitative) key performance indicators (KPIs) that serve as early warnings of emerging risks.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6ece297 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"6ece297\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-47ae001 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"47ae001\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Focuses on <span class=\"light-blue\">proactive risk management<\/span> by analysing data trends and detecting anomalies before a crisis unfolds.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-a1c4e8f e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"a1c4e8f\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-fcab21b elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"fcab21b\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">The future<br>\nwheel<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8629b33 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"8629b33\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-b40f8bf elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"b40f8bf\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tHelps organisations <span class=\"light-blue\">map the ripple effects<\/span> of a particular trend or event to better understand its cascading impact.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-adcfad3 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"adcfad3\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-b7ce423 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"b7ce423\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-751f1f6 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"751f1f6\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tStarts with a central issue (e.g. AI adoption in finance) and branches out into <span class=\"light-blue\">first-order, second order, and third-order consequences<\/span>, uncovering interdependencies and contagion risks.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3cbb58c elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"3cbb58c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>In this report, we will discuss some of the key risks facing European companies today and in the future, and explore potential applications of selected tools from this list.<\/p><p>Each trend will be illustrated by a 2&#215;2 scenario matrix. Such tools can help prepare for the very different future pathways of a risk. A scenario matrix is constructed by using two key uncertainties that will significantly shape the risk landscape for European companies.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-bd32d10 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"bd32d10\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-112e3c9 elementor-align-right elementor-widget elementor-widget-button\" data-id=\"112e3c9\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"button.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-button-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-button elementor-button-link elementor-size-sm\" href=\"https:\/\/ferma.eu\/next-report-2025\/1\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-content-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 25 24\" transform=\"rotate(0 0 0)\"><path fill-rule=\"evenodd\" clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M5.91406 4.5C5.91406 4.08579 6.24985 3.75 6.66406 3.75C7.07828 3.75 7.41406 4.08579 7.41406 4.5V9.83812L15.567 4.27346C17.0605 3.2541 19.0854 4.32365 19.0854 6.13185L19.0854 17.868C19.0854 19.6762 17.0605 20.7457 15.567 19.7264L7.41406 14.1617V19.4999C7.41406 19.9142 7.07828 20.25 6.66406 20.25C6.24985 20.25 5.91406 19.9142 5.91406 19.4999V4.5ZM7.81514 12.6194C7.37888 12.3216 7.37888 11.6782 7.81514 11.3805L16.4126 5.51238C16.9104 5.1726 17.5854 5.52912 17.5854 6.13185L17.5854 17.868C17.5854 18.4707 16.9104 18.8272 16.4126 18.4875L7.81514 12.6194Z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-29c0f90 elementor-align-right elementor-widget elementor-widget-button\" data-id=\"29c0f90\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"button.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-button-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-button elementor-button-link elementor-size-sm\" href=\"https:\/\/ferma.eu\/next-report-2025\/3\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-content-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 25 24\" transform=\"rotate(0 0 0)\"><path fill-rule=\"evenodd\" clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M19.0854 4.5C19.0854 4.08579 18.7496 3.75 18.3354 3.75C17.9212 3.75 17.5854 4.08579 17.5854 4.5V9.83812L9.43248 4.27346C7.939 3.2541 5.91406 4.32365 5.91406 6.13185V17.868C5.91406 19.6762 7.939 20.7457 9.43248 19.7264L17.5854 14.1617V19.4999C17.5854 19.9142 17.9212 20.25 18.3354 20.25C18.7496 20.25 19.0854 19.9142 19.0854 19.4999V4.5ZM17.1843 12.6194C17.6206 12.3216 17.6206 11.6782 17.1843 11.3805L8.58687 5.51238C8.08904 5.1726 7.41406 5.52912 7.41406 6.13185L7.41406 17.868C7.41406 18.4707 8.08904 18.8272 8.58687 18.4875L17.1843 12.6194Z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-text\">Next chapter<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>2 Overcoming short-termism and bias in risk management To build more resilient organisations and societies, Risk Managers must adopt a long-term perspective and actively counter cognitive biases. This can be done by: Embedding strategic foresightOrganisations should consider integrating foresight practices such as scenario planning, trend analysis and horizon scanning into their decision-making processes to anticipate [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-125","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ferma.eu\/next-report-2025\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/125","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ferma.eu\/next-report-2025\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ferma.eu\/next-report-2025\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ferma.eu\/next-report-2025\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ferma.eu\/next-report-2025\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=125"}],"version-history":[{"count":73,"href":"https:\/\/ferma.eu\/next-report-2025\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/125\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":988,"href":"https:\/\/ferma.eu\/next-report-2025\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/125\/revisions\/988"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ferma.eu\/next-report-2025\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=125"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}