{"id":123,"date":"2025-05-06T19:28:55","date_gmt":"2025-05-06T19:28:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/vigilant-wu.46-242-130-154.plesk.page\/?page_id=123"},"modified":"2025-05-30T07:33:26","modified_gmt":"2025-05-30T07:33:26","slug":"1-short-termism-and-bias-blind-spots-when-considering-emerging-risks","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/ferma.eu\/next-report-2025\/1-short-termism-and-bias-blind-spots-when-considering-emerging-risks\/","title":{"rendered":"1. Short-termism and bias; blind spots when considering Emerging Risks"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t
\n\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t

1<\/p>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t

Short-termism and bias;\nblind spots when considering emerging risks<\/h1>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t

In the current climate of accelerating change and uncertainty, strategic foresight is indispensable for Risk Managers. The past few months have underlined the speed at which situations can escalate and risks emerge and evolve. Yet, despite the increasing dynamism and complexity of global challenges, decision-makers often fall prey to short-term thinking and cognitive biases that hinder their ability to anticipate and mitigate emerging risks. This can lead to strategic blindsight. At a time when there is a widespread sense of existential threats on the horizon, this sense of foreboding often can \u2013 ironically \u2013 exacerbate a human tendency to be reluctant to think too far into the future and instead to focus on the short-to-medium term.<\/p>

It is vital, however, that Risk Managers are equipped with tools to help them look further into the future, to help their organisations to be better prepared to address risks \u2013 however rapidly they change and unexpected they might previously have appeared.<\/p>

Here we explore the systemic barriers that prevent effective long-term risk management, highlighting the role of cognitive biases and structural constraints in shaping an approach that is too often reactive rather than proactive.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\"\"\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t<\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t

The pitfalls of short-termism in risk management<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t

Short-termism\u2014the tendency to prioritise immediate gains or agendas over long-term resilience\u2014is deeply embedded in corporate and governmental decision-making. This is particularly problematic in risk management, where emerging threats often develop over extended time horizons. These threats are sometimes referred to as \u2018Grey Rhinos\u2019; hazards of high probability and high impact but which are not addressed until the risk is actually upon us. The focus on quarterly financial results, election cycles and immediate operational concerns leaves organisations ill-prepared for disruptive events and slower-moving systemic risks such as climate change, demographic shifts and technological disruption. It is a particularly unfortunate tendency given that the nature of emerging risks and trends actually often leaves ample room to identify, monitor and mitigate these threats. This short-term focus is usually driven and exacerbated by:<\/p>